Semiconductor's main driving force is still sound in the second half of 2011

A few days ago, Semiconductor Intelligence, a consultancy set up by analyst Bill Jewell, pointed out that the electronic industry has seen some signs of optimism in the second half of 2011.

Jewell said that the main reason for the revision of the forecast is that the semiconductor market in the second quarter of 2011 will be weak, and this will, of course, drag down the market growth rate for the entire year. Although many analysts believe that the weakness of the second quarter is due to the economic downturn in the Western countries and the fear of a renewed boom; but Jewell blamed the recession of the semiconductor market in the second quarter of the 311 Great Earthquake on the semiconductor supply chain The impact.

Jewell pointed out that the situation is not so bad, consumer mentality may make some areas decline, but overall consumer and commercial electronics spending remains strong. For example, US consumer spending on leisure and entertainment products and vehicles grew by 75% and 15.3% in the first quarter and second quarter of 2011, respectively, and 75% of this expenditure is electronic. In addition, U.S. corporate-to-equipment Investments in software also grew by 8.7% and 7.9% in the first and second quarters, respectively.

Jewell believes that the problems faced by the chip industry in the second quarter are mainly Japan. In the current quarter, the Japanese market declined by 8.1% from the first quarter, while the rest of the world was also affected. The chip market showed a 0.9% quarterly recession. Jewell pointed out that several stocks listed on the company's earnings forecast are optimistic. For example, Renesas estimates that chip revenue will rebound by 23% in the third quarter of 2011. Intel Corp. In addition, AMD and Qualcomm also forecast third-quarter revenues to grow healthily in the financial report, ranging from 7 to 11%, which is in line with normal seasonal conditions. However, Texas Instruments (TI) and STMicroelectronics (ST)'s earnings forecast is more pessimistic, indicating that the third quarter's revenue is a recession.

Although the overall economic conditions in Europe and the US market are poor, the main driving force of the semiconductor market is still relatively sound, so the semiconductor industry should continue to show slow growth in the second half of 2011 and 2012; Jewell concludes that Semiconductor Intelligence has grown global chip market in 2012 The rate forecast is maintained at 10%.